HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 05 2001
 
AFTER THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE SINCE 12Z.  MEANWHILE...THE
OVERALL STRUCTURE OF BARRY HAS BEEN CHANGING...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF OUTER BANDING FEATURES IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE IMMEDIATE
EFFECT OF THIS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN TO ISOLATE THE INNER CORE AND SLOW
THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS AS THE OUTER CIRCULATION STRENGTHENS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CORE REGION AND
THIS FLOW IS BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO THE CORE.  IN SPITE OF THIS...A
DROPSONDE NEAR 19Z REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 61 KT.  THUS...THERE
IS PERHAPS A VERY VERY SMALL AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.  
ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL STRUCTURE ARGUES AGAINST ANY SIGNIFICANT 
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL...ANY LESSENING OF THE SHEAR COULD 
ALLOW BARRY TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
 
AFTER DAWDLING FOR A FEW HOURS...A MOTION OF 360/5 HAS RESUMED.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  ALL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A GENERAL NORTHWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY A GENTLE TURN TO THE NORTHWEST.  IN THE LONG RUN...THE
REMNANTS OF BARRY ARE LIKELY TO SPEND ENOUGH TIME IN THE ARK/LA/MS
AREA TO PRODUCE ANOTHER SERIOUS INLAND FLOODING EVENT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 29.1N  86.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 29.9N  86.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 31.7N  86.9W    45 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     07/0600Z 33.0N  87.7W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
48HR VT     07/1800Z 33.5N  88.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND
72HR VT     08/1800Z 34.0N  89.5W    15 KTS...REMNANT LOW...INLAND
 
 
NNNN