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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 05 2001
AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS SHOWED THAT BARRY DEEPENED 14 MB IN
SIX HOURS THIS MORNING. THE PRESSURE HAS MOMENTARILY STABILIZED
AROUND 990 MB...BUT WITH A NEW CONVECTIVE BURST RIGHT OVER THE
CENTER BARRY SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON. WITH BARRY NOW
MOVING STEADILY CLOSER TO LAND...ONLY ANOTHER 15 KT OR SO OF
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...IN ACCORD WITH INTENSITY GUIDANCE
MODELS.
THE SYNOPTIC REASONING AND TRACK FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BARRY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE AROUND A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH TO ITS WEST VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. AFTER
LANDFALL...ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS COULD LINGER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW DAYS...WHICH WOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER
SERIOUS FLOODING EVENT.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 05/1500Z 28.4N 86.4W 60 KTS
12HR VT 06/0000Z 29.6N 86.3W 75 KTS
24HR VT 06/1200Z 31.1N 86.7W 50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 07/0000Z 32.4N 87.4W 30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 07/1200Z 33.3N 88.1W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
72HR VT 08/1200Z 33.9N 89.3W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
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