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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 04 2001
 
A RECENT AIRCRAFT FIX INDICATES THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING 
LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH PERHAPS A VERY SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT.  THE 12Z 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE WAS 270/01.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL AT 500 
MB SHOWS AN IMPULSE DROPPING SOUTH WEST TO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA IN 42 
HOURS WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE STORM COULD ROTATE AROUND THIS IMPULSE 
AND MOVE MORE NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY 
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE 
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND AVIATION MODELS. 
 
AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS AT 1200 FT ARE NEAR 30 KNOTS
NORTH OF THE CENTER AND THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
WIND SPEEDS UP TO 39 KNOTS WERE REPORTED SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SO THE
WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.  WITH WARM SSTS AND MINIMAL VERTICAL 
SHEAR...THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 55 KNOTS IN 36 
HOURS WHILE THE GFDL IS VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH 100 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO 60 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. 

THE FORECAST TRACK REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION AND AN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL 
STORM WATCH EAST TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 27.0N  87.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 27.2N  87.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 28.0N  88.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 29.0N  88.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N  88.8W    60 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     07/1200Z 31.5N  89.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
  
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