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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2001
 
BARRY IS JUST BARELY A TROPICAL STORM AT THE MOMENT.  THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION IS RATHER DISORGANIZED...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER IS HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING TROPICAL STORM
WINDS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED
TO 1005/1006 MB AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
AFWA ARE 35 KT.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS
PACKAGE WITH THE KNOWLEDGE THAT THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS SLOWED TO A WESTWARD DRIFT...270/02.  BARRY
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN A DEEP-LAYER COL REGION BETWEEN RIDGES
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.  THUS...STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK
AND IT IS NOT LIKELY TO GO ANYWHERE FAST.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AN IMPULSE WILL BREAK THROUGH THE EAST SIDE OF THE
U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAKEN IT AFTER 24 HR.  THE MODELS
THEN SHOW THE IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH BARRY AND CAUSING A TURN
TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST.  NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
WITH THIS SCENARIO.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN
THE TRACKS.  THE 18Z ETA RUN CALLS FOR LANDFALL AT APALACHICOLA
FL...THE LBAR IS POINTING TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND THE OTHER
MODELS ARE INBETWEEN.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...WITH A MORE WESTERLY TRACK DURING THE
FIRST 24 HR TO REFLECT THE CURRENT MOTION...AND A MORE NORTHERLY
MOTION AFTER 36 HR TO REFLECT THE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT EVEN WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE POSSIBLE LANDFALL
POINT...THE FORECAST TRACK IS STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE GFDL...
GFDN...NOGAPS...AVN...AND UKMET.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS OVER
BARRY...WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE CYCLONE.
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS PATTERN SHOULD CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HR...WITH DECREASING WINDS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GULF.  SHOULD THIS OCCUR...THE INCREASE
IN BARRY'S OVERALL SIZE SHOULD ALLOW IT TO SURVIVE THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY BEGIN STRENGTHENING TOMORROW. 
THESE TRENDS ARE REFLECTED IN THE GFDL MODEL...WHICH CALLS FOR NO
STRENGTHENING FOR 12 TO 18 HR FOLLOWED BY RAPID DEVELOPMENT INTO
A HURRICANE.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE
IN STRENGTH DURING THE FIRST 24 HR FOLLOWED BY STRENGHTENING TO
NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY BEFORE THE CURRENTLY FORECAST LANDFALL
IN LOUISIANA.
 
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF BARRY DOES NOT MOVE AS FAR WEST AS
FORECAST DURING THE FIRST 24 HR...THE THREAT AREA AND WATCHES/
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST.  INTERESTS ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BARRY.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 26.8N  87.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 26.9N  88.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 27.0N  88.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 27.4N  89.9W    50 KTS
48HR VT     06/0000Z 28.3N  90.4W    60 KTS
72HR VT     07/0000Z 30.1N  90.5W    60 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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