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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2001
 
BARRY HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...EXCEPT 
FOR THE LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER OR NEAR THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER.  THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS DECREASED AND CIRRUS 
CAN BE SEEN FLOWING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW IN 
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON 
NO CHANGE IN THE CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB... AS LAST REPORTED BY 
AIR FORCE RECON AT 03/1706Z.  THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY 
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/03. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY. THE 12Z NOGAPS 
MODEL HAS NOW SWUNG AROUND WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF ITS 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND TAKES BARRY INLAND OVER SOUTHEAST 
LOUISIANA AND NEW ORLEANS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS.  THIS SEEMS A LITTLE 
PREMATURE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LARGE SURFACE TO 300 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL AND 
SOUTHERN U.S.  THE AVN MODEL HAS SHIFTED ITS TRACK FURTHER WEST TO 
THE WEST OF MOBILE...WHILE THE UKMET STALLS THE CYCLONE IN 24 HOURS 
AND THEN TAKES IT NORTH OVER MOBILE IN 60 HOURS.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT 
OF WINDSHIELD-WIPERING THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING OVER THE PAST 
24 HOURS...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACKS.  HOWEVER...THE LONGER BARRY REMAINS NEARLY 
STATIONARY...THE MORE LIKELY THE UKMET/AVN SCENARIO COULD DEVELOP 
WITH BARRY TRACKING CLOSER TO NEW ORLEANS OR MOBILE.  THE OFFICIAL 
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND DEEP BAM MODELS.
 
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST. THE SHIPS AND 
GFDL MODELS CONTINUE TO MAKE BARRY A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS AND THEN 
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO 80 KT AND 104 KT/967 MB...RESPECTIVELY...BY 
72 HOURS.  THE LATEST GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE PREVIOUS 
TREND OF WEAKENING THE SHEAR ACROSS BARRY BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN 
BUILD A WEAK 200 MB RIDGE OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE SHEAR APPEARS TO 
ALREADY BE WEAKENING AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS JUST NORTH OF BARRY HAS BEGUN TO 
FRACTURE. HOWEVER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR TO THE 
NORTH OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO DICTATES THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...AT LEAST FOR NOW. IF DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT DOES NOT OCCUR OVER THE LONG TERM...THEN THE WEAK 
SHEAR AND STRONG NORTHERLY 200 MB JET PREDICTED TO DEVELOP ON THE 
EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION AROUND 36 TO 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 27.0N  87.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 27.1N  88.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 27.3N  88.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 27.5N  89.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 27.8N  90.4W    55 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 29.5N  91.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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