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TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 03 2001
 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BECAME ESTABLISHED OVER BARRY AND
SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA CLEARLY REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
IS NOW DETACHED FROM THE LIMITED CONVECTION.  THIS LOCATION IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH EARLIER FIXES PROVIDED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT.  IN GENERAL...THIS SEPARATION SUGGESTS THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED AND THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS.  ANOTHER PLANE WILL DETERMINE THE INTENSITY IN
A FEW HOURS.  UNANIMOUSLY...ALL MODELS GET RID OF THE WESTERLIES IN
A DAY OR SO AND BOTH SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS MAKE BARRY A
HURRICANE.  FOR THE SAKE OF CONTINUITY...AND OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
STATE OF THE ART MODELS...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BEYOND 36
HOURS.  HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE NOT MANY
SYSTEMS RECOVER ONCE THEY BECOME SO SHEARED.  THERE ARE NO
INDICATIONS THAT THE UPER-WESTERLIES ARE RELAXING AT THIS TIME.
 
COINCIDENTAL WITH THE NOAA HIGH ALTITUDE JET MISSION...WHICH SAMPLED
THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GFDL..AVN AND THE UK MODELS CHANGED THE
FORECAST AND THEY ARE NOW BRINGING BARRY TO THE NORTH BEYOND 36
HOURS. PREVIOUSLY...THEY KEPT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK.  DUE TO SUCH CHANGE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS ALSO
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY AND BRINGS BARRY NEAR THE LOUISIANA COAST
BY 72 HOURS AFTER A SLOW WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. THIS FORECAST
ASSUMES THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL OVERCOME
THE SHEAR.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 26.8N  86.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 27.0N  87.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 27.3N  88.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 27.5N  89.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 27.8N  90.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 28.5N  90.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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