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HURRICANE KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  14B
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT MON OCT 02 2000

...KEITH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...CONTINUES TO POUND BELIZE AND
THE YUCATAN...DEADLY STORM SURGE POSSIBLE IN THE BAY OF CHETUMAL...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES
...90 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND ABOUT 45 MILES
...70 KM...NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
 
KEITH HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  A SLOW
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 48 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.30 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...HAVE LIKELY BEEN OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE
HURRICANE.

NOTE...IN ADDITION TO THE STORM SURGE FLOODING...RECENT REPORTS
INDICATE THAT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EMPTIED THE BAY OF
CHETUMAL AND PEOPLE HAVE BEEN WALKING ACROSS THE BAY. THIS IS AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION BECAUSE THE BAY WATER CAN RAPIDLY
RETURN AND FLOOD THE ENTIRE BAY AND SURROUNDING AREAS IN VERY SHORT
NOTICE.  ALL INTERESTS IN AND AROUND THE BAY OF CHETUMAL SHOULD
REMAIN INSIDE AND AWAY FROM THE COASTAL AREAS AT ALL TIMES.  THIS IS
A POTENTIALLY DEADLY SITUATION SO TAKE PRECAUTIONARY ACTION NOW TO
SAVE YOUR LIFE...SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...EASTERN MEXICO...BELIZE AND HONDURAS.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  DUE TO THE
SLOW MOTION OF THE HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE PATH OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 2O
INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE  1 AM CDT POSITION...17.8 N... 87.9 W.  MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 958 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
AT 4 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
  
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