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BULLETIN
HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT MON OCT 02 2000

...KEITH CREEPING WESTWARD...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE IN BELIZE...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.  THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.0 WEST OR ABOUT 20 MILES...35
KM...NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
 
KEITH IS DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY TO THE WEST.  LITTLE MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN TOMORROW.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  KEITH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  15 MILES... 30 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND BELIZE.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THE
HURRICANE...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 10 TO 15 INCHES.  THERE HAS
BEEN A STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF OVER 14 INCHES AT THE BELIZE AIRPORT.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...17.7 N... 88.0 W.  MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WESTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 987 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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