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BULLETIN
HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000
 
...KEITH EDGING VERY SLOWLY ONSHORE...POUNDING BELIZE...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.9 WEST OR ABOUT 50 MILES...80
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND ABOUT 40 MILES...60 KM
NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
 
KEITH IS DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST.  LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS.  A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SAN
PEDRO ON AMBERGRIS CAY...IN THE WEST EYEWALL OF KEITH...RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 120 MPH.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 105 MILES...165 KM.
 
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND NICARAGUA.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  WITH THE SLOW MOTION
OF THE HURRICANE...DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE PATH
OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 15 TO 2O INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...17.9 N... 87.9 W.  MOVEMENT
DRIFTING WEST.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 951 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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