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HURRICANE KEITH ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000

...KEITH STRENGTHENS EVEN FURTHER...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...MENACING YUCATAN AND BELIZE...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.3 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.
 
KEITH HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TODAY.  HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT WESTWARD MOTION
COULD BRING THE CENTER TO THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA.  A SLOW
NORTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES KEITH A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
942 MB...27.82 INCHES.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG
WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING
AREA.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM CDT POSITION...18.0 N... 87.3 W.  MOVEMENT
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 7 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM
CDT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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