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TROPICAL STORM HELENE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2000

...HELENE HEADED FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI IS DISCONTINUED.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE AUCILLA RIVER
FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA
EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE AUCILLA RIVER.  SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT FROM WEST OF PASCAGOULA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.1 WEST
OR ABOUT 95 MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
 
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST...HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY
AFTER LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  996 MB...29.41 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY BATTERING WAVES...IS LIKELY
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS...
ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF HELENE.
 
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM CDT POSITION...29.1 N... 87.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
CDT...FRIDAY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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