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TROPICAL STORM KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT TUE OCT 03 2000
 
...KEITH DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARD CHETUMAL MEXICO...
...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES...

AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS REPLACED THE
HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
BELIZE FROM MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE TO THE MEXICO-BELIZE BORDER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE MEXICO TO MONKEY RIVER TOWN
BELIZE.  

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEITH WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  88.1 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES...50 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO.  THIS IS ALSO
JUST WEST OF AMBERGRIS CAY.
 
KEITH IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH.  WHILE LITTLE
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...ANY CONTINUATION OF THE
CURRENT DRIFT COULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER NORTHERN BELIZE
TONIGHT.  A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER
TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR  65 MPH...105
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
...165 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  989 MB...29.21 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3-6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...WILL CONTINUE OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE TROPICAL STORM.  THIS SHOULD DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS KEITH MOVES
INLAND AND WEAKENS.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  RECENT HAM
RADIO REPORTS INDICATE THAT MORE THAN 22 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
TO THE WEST OF BELIZE CITY SINCE SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 10 INCHES
HAVING FALLEN DURING THE PAST 9 HOURS.  DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM...ADDITIONAL DEVASTATING RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
IN THE VICINITY OF KEITH COULD EASILY EXCEED 10 TO 15 INCHES.
 
REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...18.1 N... 88.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  2 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 65 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
AT 4 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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