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HURRICANE KEITH INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  12A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM CDT SUN OCT 01 2000
 
...DANGEROUS CORE OF HURRICANE KEITH PARTIALLY ONSHORE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN YUCATAN AND NORTHEASTERN BELIZE...EXTREME DAMAGE IS
LIKELY DUE TO STORM SURGE...STRONG WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 1 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KEITH WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.7 WEST OR ABOUT 55 MILES...90
KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND ABOUT 50 MILES...75 KM...
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY.
 
KEITH IS ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY...BUT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS
DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST.  LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 942
MB...27.82 INCHES.
 
HEAVY RAINS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE
...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA AND NICARAGUA.  THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WARNING AREA.
 
AN ANEMOMETER ON SAN PEDRO ISLAND IN THE WEST EYEWALL REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 83 MPH BEFORE THE INSTRUMENT FAILED.  GUSTS TO
110 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN REPORTED.  POWER LINES ARE REPORTED DOWN IN
BELIZE CITY.
 
REPEATING THE 1 PM CDT POSITION...17.9 N... 87.7 W.  MOVEMENT
STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE... 942 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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