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TROPICAL STORM HELENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2000

...HELENE IS NOT STRENGTHENING...HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER
TO THE MOUTH OF THE AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE AUCILLA
RIVER.  SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT FROM WEST OF PASCAGOULA TO
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
AT 1 AM CDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HELENE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  87.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
 
HELENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 15 MPH ...24 KM/HR...AND A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CROSS THE COAST WITHIN THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
HELENE IS NOT STRENGTHENING AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BARELY 
65 MPH...100 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN A FEW SQUALLS EAST OF THE
CENTER.   NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST...HOWEVER ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS
COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY
AFTER LANDFALL.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY BATTERING WAVES...IS LIKELY
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS...
ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF HELENE.
 
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
 
REPEATING THE 1 AM CDT POSITION...29.4 N... 87.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 65 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1000 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 4 AM CDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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