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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM CDT FRI SEP 15 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7AM CDT MON SEP 18 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
22.5N 90.5W 51 X X X 51 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4
23.5N 90.5W 37 X X X 37 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5
24.5N 91.0W 13 8 2 1 24 MOBILE AL X X X 6 6
MUSN 216N 826W X X X 2 2 GULFPORT MS X X 1 6 7
MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3 BURAS LA X X 3 7 10
MUAN 219N 850W X 1 2 4 7 NEW ORLEANS LA X X 2 7 9
MMCZ 205N 869W X 2 2 3 7 NEW IBERIA LA X X 2 8 10
MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 2 2 PORT ARTHUR TX X X 1 8 9
MMSO 238N 982W X X X 4 4 GALVESTON TX X X 2 8 10
MMTM 222N 979W X X X 3 3 FREEPORT TX X X 2 8 10
MMTX 210N 974W X X X 2 2 PORT O CONNOR TX X X 1 8 9
MMFR 185N 926W X X X 2 2 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X 1 6 7
MMMD 210N 897W 99 X X X 99 BROWNSVILLE TX X X 1 6 7
MARATHON FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 4 4
KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 87W X X 1 6 7
MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X 1 6 6 13
FT MYERS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X 1 7 6 14
VENICE FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 93W X X 7 7 14
TAMPA FL X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 95W X X 4 7 11
CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2 GULF 27N 96W X X 3 7 10
ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2 GULF 25N 96W X X 4 6 10
APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7AM SAT TO 7PM SAT
C FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN
D FROM 7AM SUN TO 7AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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