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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SAT SEP 02 2000
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE  52.7 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2PM AST TUE SEP  5 2000
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
19.9N  57.0W      51  X  X  X 51   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  X  5  5
21.1N  59.3W      16 16  1  X 33   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  2  2
22.2N  61.7W       X 15  9  1 25   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  1  5  6
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  1  1  2   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X  2  2
TFFR 163N 615W     X  X  3  1  4   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X  3  3
TAPA 171N 618W     X  1  5  1  7   BERMUDA            X  X  X  3  3
TKPK 173N 627W     X  X  5  2  7   ST CROIX VI        X  X  2  4  6
TNCM 181N 631W     X  1  6  3 10   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  3  5  8
TISX 177N 648W     X  X  2  4  6   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  1  5  6
TIST 183N 650W     X  X  3  5  8   PONCE PR           X  X  X  5  5
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2PM SUN TO  2AM MON
C FROM  2AM MON TO  2PM MON
D FROM  2PM MON TO  2PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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