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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SAT SEP 02 2000
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  51.6 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  8AM AST TUE SEP  5 2000
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
19.0N  56.2W      50  X  X  X 50   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  1  6  7
20.0N  58.7W      12 19  1  X 32   MDSD 185N 697W     X  X  X  3  3
21.0N  61.2W       X 15  9  1 25   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  2  7  9
TDPR 153N 614W     X  X  2  1  3   MDPP 198N 707W     X  X  X  4  4
TFFR 163N 615W     X  1  5  1  7   MBJT 215N 712W     X  X  X  4  4
TAPA 171N 618W     X  2  7  1 10   ST CROIX VI        X  X  3  6  9
TKPK 173N 627W     X  1  6  3 10   ST THOMAS VI       X  X  4  7 11
TNCM 181N 631W     X  1  9  3 13   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  2  7  9
TISX 177N 648W     X  X  3  6  9   PONCE PR           X  X  1  6  7
TIST 183N 650W     X  X  4  7 11
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  8AM SUN TO  8PM SUN
C FROM  8PM SUN TO  8AM MON
D FROM  8AM MON TO  8AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  8AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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