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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SAT SEP 02 2000
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST TUE SEP 5 2000
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
17.6N 53.9W 50 X X X 50 TNCM 181N 631W X X 3 13 16
18.4N 56.3W 17 15 X X 32 TISX 177N 648W X X X 13 13
19.0N 58.5W X 17 6 1 24 TIST 183N 650W X X X 14 14
TBPB 131N 595W X X 1 1 2 TJPS 180N 666W X X X 10 10
TVSV 131N 612W X X X 2 2 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 3 3
TLPL 138N 610W X X 1 3 4 TJSJ 184N 661W X X X 12 12
TFFF 146N 610W X X 3 4 7 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2
TDPR 153N 614W X X 4 5 9 ST CROIX VI X X X 13 13
TFFR 163N 615W X X 7 6 13 ST THOMAS VI X X X 14 14
TAPA 171N 618W X X 8 7 15 SAN JUAN PR X X X 12 12
TKPK 173N 627W X X 4 11 15 PONCE PR X X X 10 10
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SUN TO 2PM SUN
C FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON
D FROM 2AM MON TO 2AM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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