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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1500
2100Z FRI SEP 15 2000
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SOUTH OF
LATITUDE 24 DEGREES NORTH.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 107.7W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 107.7W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.9N 108.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.6N 109.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.9N 111.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 107.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 25.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 27.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FORECASTER RAPPAPORT
 
 
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