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TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1100
1500Z MON AUG 14 2000
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM LA PAZ AROUND THE PENINSULA TO TODOS LOS SANTOS.
 
AT  8 AM...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 106.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 106.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 20.1N 107.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 21.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 22.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 106.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 22.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 23.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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