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HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1700
2100Z TUE OCT 17 2000
 
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHAEL.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N  71.0W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT  3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N  71.0W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N  71.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 30.8N  70.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.2N  69.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.5N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N  71.0W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 39.0N  64.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 48.5N  56.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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