HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
1500Z MON OCT 02 2000
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.  THIS MAY BE CHANGED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH LATER TODAY.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  87.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  90SE  90SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  87.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N  87.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.7N  87.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  90SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.3N  88.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.5N  88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N  87.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.5N  89.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N  91.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
NNNN