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HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
1500Z SUN OCT 01 2000
 
...CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE WORD INLAND FROM LAST TWO FORECAST
POSITIONS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY
RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  87.6W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 140SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  87.6W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  87.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.2N  87.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.6N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N  88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N  87.6W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 21.5N  89.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 25.0N  90.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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