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HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
2100Z SAT SEP 30 2000
 
AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
AND BELIZE FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO MONKEY RIVER TOWN.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  86.8W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  86.8W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  86.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 18.4N  87.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.5N  87.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.3N  87.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  86.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 21.0N  87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 23.0N  88.0W 
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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