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HURRICANE KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
1500Z SAT SEP 30 2000
 
A HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN
FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE MEXICO/BELIZE BORDER.  THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING COULD BE UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNING LATER TODAY.
 
AT 11 AM...1500 UTC THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN FROM WEST OF CABO CATOCHE TO
PROGRESO.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  86.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT MEANDERING 
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE 130SE  75SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  86.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N  86.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.9N  87.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS  95 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 20.0N  87.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 20.8N  87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N  86.6W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 21.5N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 22.5N  88.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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