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TROPICAL STORM KEITH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1500
2100Z FRI SEP 29 2000
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH ALONG THE EAST OF YUCATAN FROM CHETUMAL TO CABO
CATOCHE.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  85.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE  25SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  85.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N  84.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.9N  85.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 18.4N  85.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  70 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  85.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 20.0N  85.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 21.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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