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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1400
2100Z SAT SEP 30 2000
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR TRINIDAD...TOBAGO...
GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR BARBADOS...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF VENEZUELA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS STORM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N  57.3W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N  57.3W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.4N  56.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 11.0N  59.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 11.8N  62.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.5N  65.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N  57.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 13.5N  67.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 15.0N  72.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH

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