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TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1200
0300Z FRI SEP 22 2000
 
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI IS DISCONTINUED.  A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FROM THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE MOUTH OF THE AUCILLA RIVER
FLORIDA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCAGOULA
EASTWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE AUCILLA RIVER.  SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
REMAIN IN PORT FROM WEST OF PASCAGOULA TO THE MOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  87.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 35NE  35SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N  87.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  87.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 30.8N  86.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 33.0N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.0N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...WITH
HIGHER LEVELS IN BAYS...ACCOMPANIED BY BATTERING WAVES...IS LIKELY
NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N  87.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 36.5N  76.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 39.0N  67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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