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TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST TUE NOV 07 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/5 BASED ON A USAF RECON FIX AT
17Z.  THE 12 AVIATION MODEL RUN SHOWS AN ANTICYLONE ANCHORED OVER
CUBA AND A TROUGH REAMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE GFDL
MODEL RESPONDS TO THIS BY MOVING THE STORM VERY SLOWLY UNTIL
DISSIPATI0N IN 42 HOURS WITHOUT REACHING LAND.  THE OTHER MODELS
MOVE THE STORM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT VARYING ACCELERATIONS OF
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MOVES THE CENTER INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS
WITH A 5 KNOT FORWARD MOTION.
 
RECON DATA PUTS THE WIND SPEED NEAR 50 KNOTS WITH 1000 MB CENTRAL
SURFACE PRESSURE.  IT IS INTERESTING THAT THE RECON REPORTED A
CLOSED EYEWALL OF 20 MILE DIAMETER.  THIS IS NOT SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND IS SOMETHING THAT IS USUALLY THOUGHT TO OCCUR ONLY WITH
HURRICANE INTENSITY.  A COLD CDO FEATURE DOES PERSIST...BUT SHIPS
AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOW NO STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 14.8N  97.1W    50 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 15.4N  96.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 16.2N  96.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  95.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     09/1800Z 17.8N  94.8W    20 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     10/1800Z ...DISSIPATED
 
 
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