HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM PST TUE NOV 07 2000

IT REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER...BUT BEST ESTIMATES GIVE
A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION...360/3.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR PROGNOSTIC REASONING.  GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF ROSA. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE AVN...U.K. MET...AND GFDN MODELS.  THIS BRINGS
THE CENTER...OR AT LEAST THE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS...NEAR THE
COAST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.   

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE INDICATIVE OF SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEARING.  THERE IS ESSENTIALLY NO BANDING...AND THE CENTER IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE SOUTHWEST EDGE OF AN IRREGULARLY-SHAPED
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON THE DISORGANIZED APPEARANCE...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD A BIT...TO 50 KNOTS.  THE
SHIPS MODEL STILL SHOWS SOME STRENGTHENING...BUT ALSO INDICATES
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  BECAUSE THERE IS NO REASON TO BELIEVE
THE SHEAR WILL DECREASE...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL
THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.  

AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ROSA
LATER TODAY...AND THIS SHOULD GIVE US MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ON
THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF ROSA.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0900Z 13.6N  98.9W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/1800Z 14.2N  98.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     08/0600Z 14.9N  98.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     08/1800Z 15.9N  97.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     09/0600Z 17.0N  97.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     10/0600Z 19.0N  95.5W    25 KTS
 
NNNN