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TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST MON NOV 06 2000
 
THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/05.  THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS
AND AVIATION MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A SLOW FORWARD MOTION
THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A HEADING VARYING BETWEEN NORTH AND NORTHEAST.
LBAR AND THE DEEP AND BAMS ARE MUCH FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORCAST TRACK OPTS FOR THE SLOW
MOSTLY NORTHWARD TURNING NORTHEASTWARD SCENARIO AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  
 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55-65 KNOTS. AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0035Z SHOWED NOTHING HIGHER THAN 40 KNOTS...
SUGGESTING THAT DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE ON THE HIGH SIDE.  SO THE
CURRENT WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE
WIND SPEED TO 69 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL AND IS SHOWING INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING ROSA.  THE UKMET AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST
WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BRINGING ROSA TO 65 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WILL PROBABLY
HAVE TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN SIX HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 13.2N  98.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 14.0N  99.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 14.9N  98.9W    65 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 15.8N  98.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 16.8N  97.7W    35 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N  96.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
  
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