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TROPICAL STORM ROSA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST MON NOV 06 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/06.  THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS
AND AVIATION MODELS SHOW A CONTINUATION OF A SLOW FORWARD MOTION
THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH A HEADING VARYING BETWEEN NORTH AND EAST.
LBAR AND THE DEEP AND BAMS ARE MUCH FASTER TOWARD THE NORTH OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORCAST TRACK OPTS FOR THE SLOW
MOSTLY NORTHWARD SOLUTION AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 55 KNOTS...EVEN THOUGH
THE CURRENT PATTERN OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE.  A
QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0035Z SHOWED NOTHING HIGHER THAN 40 KNOTS...
CONTAMINATED OR NOT.  SO 55 KNOTS MAY BE TOO HIGH.  THE SHIPS MODEL
BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 74 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE UKMET AND
GFDL MODELS FORECAST WEAKENING OR LITTLE CHANGE.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BRINGING ROSA TO 65 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.  THIS REQUIRES A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 12.8N  98.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 13.5N  99.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 14.6N  99.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 15.6N  98.8W    65 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 17.0N  98.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     09/1200Z 18.5N  96.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
  
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