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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM PST SUN NOV 05 2000

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND STILL
IS...BASED ON DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS.  HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DECREASE IN CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE
CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT IMPROVED.  THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS NOT BEING
UPGRADED AT THIS TIME.  GIVEN THAT THE SHEAR IS WEAK AND THE OCEAN
IS WARM...IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM LATER TODAY.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP THUS
FAR...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LESS STRENGTHENING THAN
INDICATED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/10.  THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW AMPLIFICATION OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS
AN INITIAL IMPULSE IS KICKED OUT AND A STRONGER VORTICITY MAXIMUM
DROPS IN FROM CALIFORNIA.  IN SPITE OF THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS TROUGH
AS PREDICTED BY THE AVN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODELS...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE DOES NOT AGREE ON RECURVATURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE
AVN AND ASSOCIATED BAM GUIDANCE KEEP THE CYCLONE MOSTLY ON A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...WHEREAS THE U.K. MET AND NOGAPS TURN THE
SYSTEM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BUT MOVE IT QUITE SLOWLY AS WELL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS
A COMPROMISE OF THESE POSSIBILITIES.   
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 10.5N  96.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1800Z 10.6N  97.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/0600Z 11.0N  99.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/1800Z 11.5N  99.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 12.5N 100.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 14.5N 100.0W    55 KTS
 
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