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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 PM PST SAT NOV 04 2000
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED DURING
THE PAST 06 HOURS AND IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB...30 KT FROM
KGWC...AND 25 KT FROM SAB.  ALTHOUGH THE APPEARANCE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY SUGGESTS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
HELD DOWN SLIGHTLY DUE TO ONLY INTERMITTENT CONVECTION OCCURRING
NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WEST
SEMICIRCLE AND RESTRICTED TO THE EAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08.  THE SYSTEM CENTER HAS BEEN
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY UNTIL THE PAST 03 HOURS.
NOW THAT CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING CLOSER TO THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE DEEP
LAYER MEAN FLOW WHICH SUGGESTS A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
05/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE
DEPRESSION IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND TOWARD A DEEP MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY ALONG 115W LONGITUDE.  THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS A
CONTINUED WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AFTERWARDS.  GIVEN THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH...RECURVATURE IS A
VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AS INDICATED BY THE UKMET...GFDN...AND
NOGAPS MODELS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
AND SIMILAR TO THE GFDN MODEL AND SLOWER THAN THE UKMET MODEL.
 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTHENING.  IN FACT...BY 48 TO 72 HOURS...THE APPROACHING
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW...WHICH IS
ALSO FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SOME STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 64 KT IN 48
HOURS AND 74 KT IN 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 10.4N  95.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 10.5N  96.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 10.8N  98.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 11.5N  99.6W    45 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 12.6N 100.3W    50 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 14.5N 100.0W    55 KTS
  
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