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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST SAT NOV 04 2000
 
VISIBLE IMAGERY IS CONFUSING.  AN IMPRESSIVE SMALL CDO AND BANDING
FEATURE HAS RECENTLY FORMED BUT IT APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER.  UNLESS THERE IS MORE THAN ONE CENTER...WHICH IS A
POSSIBLITY SUGGESTED BY QUIKSCAT WIND FIELDS.  TRACKING WHAT APPEARS
TO BE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF ABOUT 265/11. 
THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BUT OTHERWISE RETAINS A SIMILAR PHILOSOPHY OF SLOWING DOWN
AND TURNING NORTHWARD. THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE DIVERSE...RANGING FROM
DUE WEST TO NORTHEASTWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE AND ASSUMES THAT THE 12Z AVIATION MODEL
SCENARIO IS CORRECT...WITH A CUT-OFF LOW OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA BEING
REPLACED AND CAUSING A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND NORTHWARD TURN.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS.  SSTS ARE HIGH AND
VERTICAL SHEAR IS NIL.  THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS RIDDLED WITH
UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE WESTERN CLOUD PATTERN
BECOMES DOMINANT.  IF IT DOES...THERE COULD BE SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION.  OTHERWISE...THERE COULD BE DISSIPATION.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
CALLING FOR SLOW STRENGTHING.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 10.3N  95.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 10.2N  96.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 10.3N  98.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 11.0N  99.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 12.0N 100.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 13.5N 100.5W    45 KTS
 
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