HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST SAT NOV 04 2000
 
THE CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON NIGHTTIME IMAGERY AND THE
FIRST VISIBLE PICTURES DO NOT SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CENTER. 
A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS IS AMBIGUOUS.  IT MAY BE THAT THERE IS NO
LONGER A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE LAST DECENT LOCATION WAS FROM
A 0209Z TRMM PASS WHICH SUPPORTED A 275/10 MOTION FROM THE LAST
DAYLIGHT FIXES.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD AND THE CUT-OFF LOW NEAR
BAJA CALIFORNIA BEING REPLACED BY ANOTHER ONE IN 72 HOURS.  THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWISH FORWARD SPEED AND INCREASING NORTHWARD
COMPONENT OF MOTION.  THE GUIDANCE VARIES FROM DUE WEST TO A TURN
TOWARD DUE NORTH AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE AND
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER.

THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OR FORECAST INTENSITY. 
THE SHIPS MODEL AGGRESIVELY GOES TO 74 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS BUT THE
UKMET FORECASTS DISSIPATION BY THEN.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 10.8N  93.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 10.9N  94.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 11.0N  96.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     06/0000Z 11.4N  97.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     06/1200Z 12.0N  98.7W    45 KTS
72HR VT     07/1200Z 14.0N 100.0W    45 KTS
  
NNNN