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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEST DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST FRI NOV 03 2000
 
A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IN A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS HAS BEEN VISIBLE
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED CLOSE
ENOUGH TO THE CENTER TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING THIS SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS QUITE RAGGED HOWEVER AND IT MAY
TAKE A WHILE...IF EVER...BEFORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING OCCURS. 
THE SHIPS MODEL WITH ITS POSITIVE BIAS GOES TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE
IN 72 HOURS WHILE THE AVIATION AND UKMET MODELS SHOW LITTLE
STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
TO 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS AS A COMPROMISE WITH THE GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/07.  THERE IS A RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE RANGES BETWEEN
WEST AND NORTHWEST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A CONTINUATION
OF THE CURRENT MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 10.5N  90.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 10.8N  91.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 11.3N  92.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 11.8N  93.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 12.3N  94.8W    35 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 13.2N  97.5W    35 KTS
 
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