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TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 28 2000

TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODIC
BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW IS VERY DIFFLUENT...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS POOR OWING TO 
MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.  MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA WAS
UNAVAILABLE FOR POSITIONING.
 
THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED IMAGERY THIS
MORNING AND MAY POSSIBLY BE ELONGATED EAST-WEST.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/13 AND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON PERSISTENCE AND
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
MAINTAIN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SO PAUL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TRACK IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION AS A STRAIGHT-
RUNNER.  THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECASTS AND THE LATEST TIGHTLY-PACKED MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. 
NOTE...THE CENTER POSITION MAY HAVE TO BE RELOCATED ONCE VISIBLE
IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE.

PAUL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN AT LEAST A MODERATE SHEAR PATTERN FOR
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS
TURN THE 200 MB WINDS AROUND TO A NORTHEAST OR EASTERLY DIRECTION...
WHICH WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IF PAUL REMAINS
SOUTH OF 15N LATITUDE.  IN CONTRAST...THE UKMET RETAINS SOME WEAK
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
MAINTAINS PAUL AT MINIMUM DEPRESSION STRENGTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST.  SOME
SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP AND THEN WEAKEN. 
HOWEVER...IF THE SHEAR SHARPLY DECREASES LIKE THE AVN AND NOGAPS
MODELS ARE FORECASTING...THEN PAUL WILL BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND THE SHIPS MODEL ARE INDICATING.
  
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 11.9N 125.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 12.0N 127.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 12.3N 129.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 12.6N 132.3W    30 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 13.0N 134.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     31/1200Z 14.0N 139.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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