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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2000
 
PAUL REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CENTER AND A LARGER...BUT DISSIPATING...CONVECTIVE MASS FURTHER
EAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...
AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  PAUL WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR AT LEAST
ONE MORE ADVISORY.

LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A TURN TO THE LEFT.  THE INITIAL
MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 275/13...BUT THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS
CLOSER TO 270 AND FASTER.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT PAUL AND THE DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST
HAVE BY-PASSED EACH OTHER...AND THAT LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF PAUL IS BECOMING THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE.  THIS
SHOULD MOVE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY WESTWARD...WITH THE MAIN QUESTION
BEING WILL THE MOTION BE CLOSER TO 270 OR 285.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH A 275
MOTION EARLY AND A 285 MOTION LATE.  THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE NOGAPS...AVN...AND GFDN.

PAUL REMAINS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...WITH SHEAR DATA FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWING 15-25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. 
THIS IS UNLIKELY TO LET UP FOR AT LEAST 24 HR.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST WILL THUS WEAKEN PAUL TO A DEPRESSION AFTER THE NEXT
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST
DECREASING WESTERLIES AFTER 24-36 HR...AND IN VIEW OF THIS THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AFTER 36 HR. 
HOWEVER...THESE UPPER WINDS FORECASTS HAVE NOT VERIFIED POORLY FOR
THE PAST TWO DAYS...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE WESTERLIES
WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO DISSIPATE PAUL BEFORE 72 HR.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 11.7N 123.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 11.9N 125.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 12.0N 127.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 12.3N 130.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N 132.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 13.5N 137.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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