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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 27 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL HAS HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS
AND REMAINS IN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND A 27/1411Z QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS SHOWING 30 TO 35 KT WINDS WHEN THE CONVECTION WAS WEAKER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11.  PAUL MAY HAVE BEGUN TO MAKE
THE TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  A SHEAR LINE/COLD FRONT AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD BUILDING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE BUILDING 
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHG AND KEEP PAUL MOVING ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST OR WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MOST OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW CLOSELY CLUSTERED AROUND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMET...GUNS...
AND DEEP BAM MODELS.
 
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS DIFFLUENT...WHICH IS
PROBABLY THE ONLY THING KEEPING PAUL ALIVE...BTU THE SHEAR PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PAUL COULD EASILY
WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME.  HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR OR LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING
BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...AND THE IMPRESSIVE
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY INFLOW PATTERN THAT HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE
DAY.  THE LATTER FEATURE MAY INCREASE THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
DEEP CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM PERIOD
DESPITE THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 12.0N 121.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 12.3N 122.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 12.7N 124.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 13.2N 126.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 13.5N 128.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 14.0N 132.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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