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TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI OCT 27 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/10 WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE USING THE
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON NIGHT-TIME IMAGERY.  THE 00Z AVIATION
MODEL SHOWS A WEAK EAST/WEST RIDGE HOLDING JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS SIX HOURS AGO...SHOWING
A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST
TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO AND AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  EVEN THOUGH DVORAK CONSTRAINTS KEEP
THE WIND SPEED AT 45 KNOTS...A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0128Z SHOWED ALL
WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS...INCLUDING THE RAIN CONTAMINATED WINDS EAST
AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER THE CONVECTION WAS AT A MINIMUM AT
THAT TIME AND HAS SINCE SIGNIFICANTLY REDEVELOPED.  SO PAUL IS KEPT
A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KNOT WINDS.  THE SHIPS MODEL
DIAGNOSIS OF THE VERTICAL SHEAR STARTS AT 19 KNOTS AND INCREASES TO
31 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.  BUT DUE TO WARM SSTS...THE SHIPS MODEL
INCREASES THE WINDS A LITTLE AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 11.2N 119.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 11.6N 120.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.2N 122.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 12.6N 124.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 13.1N 125.6W    40 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.8N 128.5W    40 KTS
 
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