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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2000

THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE THIS EVENING.  THE DEEP
CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE REMAINS...AND THIS MAY BE ONLY HIGH CLOUD
DEBRIS...HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
THE CENTER.  THE SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO ASSIGN A DATA T-NUMBER BY THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE...BUT CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS
USING THE DVORAK RULES.  IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES...OLIVIA
WILL DISSIPATE IN 24 HOURS OR SOONER.  THE SHIPS MODEL DISSIPATES
THE SYSTEM BY 36 HOURS.  NONETHELESS WE HAVE SEEN THIS SYSTEM MAKE A
COMEBACK A COUPLE OF TIMES BEFORE...AND TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...I WILL SHOW OLIVIA HANGING ON FOR A
WHILE LONGER.

THE NHC FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND FOLLOWS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME REASONING.  GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING FROM THE WESTERN U.S.
SOUTHWARD TO JUST WEST OF BAJA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  IN
RESPONSE TO THIS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
DURING THE PERIOD.  HOWEVER...OLIVIA MAY NOT SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH AS
A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO CARRY OUT SUCH A TRACK.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 19.3N 116.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 20.3N 117.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 22.5N 117.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N 116.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     11/0000Z 26.0N 114.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     12/0000Z 29.0N 110.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 
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