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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN OCT 08 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09.  AS BEFORE...THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING A
RECURVATURE ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN TWO TO THREE DAYS. 
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE FOREWARD SPEED WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER.

THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN BEEN SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER AND HAS ALSO DIMINIMISHED CONSIDERABLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 45 KNOTS.  BUT
THE SATELLITE IMAGERY PRESENTS A RATHER WEAK LOOKING STORM...SO THE
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS...GFDL AND UKMET MODELS
ALL FORECAST WEAKENING AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES NEAR 25 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
AGREES WITH THIS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 19.0N 115.6W    40 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 20.0N 116.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 21.7N 117.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 23.7N 116.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 25.2N 114.3W    30 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
  
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