HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 08 2000
 
THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CENTER IS ABOUT 45 NMI LEFT OF
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OTHERWISE THE BASIC TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING A RECURVATURE
ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA IN TWO TO THREE DAYS.  THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD AND CUTTING OFF
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  IF THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE NEEDED IN ABOUT 18 HOURS.
 
A COLD SYMMETRIC CDO FEATURE PERSISTS BUT IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST
OF THE ESTIMATED LOW LEVEL CENTER.  THE WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 45
KNOTS UNTIL THE CENTER IS FORECAST INLAND IN 72 HOURS.  THIS IS A
LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WHICH SHOWS
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS AND WEAKENING TO 30 KNOTS
BY THEN.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 18.3N 114.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 19.2N 115.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 20.9N 116.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 23.1N 116.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 25.0N 115.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 29.5N 111.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
  
NNNN