HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 07 2000

OLIVIA IS A TENACIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE.  CONVECTION KEEPS
REDEVELOPING AND THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY STRONG
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION...SUGGESTING THAT THE WIND SHEAR HAS
RELAXED. IN FACT...THE COULD PATTERN IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED AND
THE SYSTEM IS STRONGER THAT 24 HOURS AGO. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE ABOUT 50 KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR
BEFORE OLIVIA BEGINS TO APPROACH COOLER WATERS IN TWO OR THREE DAYS.

OLIVIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A NEW TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE PACIFIC.  OLIVIA MAY THEN TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 17.1N 112.1W    50 KTS
12HR VT     08/0000Z 17.5N 113.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N 114.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     09/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     09/1200Z 20.5N 118.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     10/1200Z 23.5N 120.0W    40 KTS
 
 
NNNN