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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 06 2000
 
DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER...ONLY TO
WEAKEN A FEW HOURS LATER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB INDICATED 45 KT AT 00Z...BUT CONVECTION HAS ONCE AGAIN
WEAKENED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 40 KT.  OUTFLOW IS FAIR
TO POOR TO THE WEST AND RESTRICTED TO THE EAST DUE TO EASTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/06.  THE GENERAL MOTION IS WESTERLY
WITH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED AND DIRECTION.  AS
CONVECTION INCREASES AND THE CIRCULATION BECOMES DEEPER...THE
FORWARD SPEED INCREASES...AND VICE VERSA.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY 24 HOURS AS OLIVIA BEGINS TO THE ROUND
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK...
EXCEPT FOR THE GFDN WHICH TAKES OLIVIA TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHEAST...AND THE DEEP BAMD MODEL WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE RAPIDLY
DUE WEST.
 
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST
REASONING.  THERE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS WITH STRENGTHENING AT NIGHT AND WEAKENING DURING THE
DAY AS THE CONVECTION PULSES.  HOWEVER...THE OVERALL INTENSITY TREND
SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY CONSTANT AS THE HIGH-LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE
CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER SSTS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 15.7N 110.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 15.9N 111.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 16.4N 112.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 17.1N 114.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 18.0N 116.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 21.0N 119.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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