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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU OCT 05 2000
 
VISIBLE PICTURES CONFIRM NE SHEAR HAS TAKEN A TOLL AND THE LOW-
LEVEL CENTER IS NOW ALMOST COMPLETELY EXPOSED FROM THE DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  DVORAK CONSTRAINTS KEEP FROM
DROPPING THE MAXIMUM WINDS TOO FAST.  45 KT HAS BEEN SELECTED...THE
SAME AS THE LOWEST OF THE 18Z ESTIMATES FROM THE THREE SATELLITE
ANALYSIS CENTERS. THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF
WEST..ABOUT 260/6 KT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
 
THE GFDL AND AVN BOTH SHOW THE RIDGE NORTH OF OLIVIA GIVING AWAY IN
THE 2-3 DAY TIME FRAME...WITH THE TRACK TURNING NORTHWARD AND
INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR AT THE END OF THAT PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS MORE CONSERVATIVE IN THE TURN DUE TO THE EXPECTATION THE
WEAKENING CENTER WILL MORE LIKELY FOLLOW THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING
CURRENT INDICATED BY THE BAMS.
 
SHIPS NO LONGER FORECASTS STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE FORCE...
PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE CURRENT WEAKENING TREND.  THE NHC FORECAST
CALLS FOR OLIVIA TO REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
 
FORECASTER RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 15.8N 108.5W    45 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 15.7N 109.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 15.7N 110.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 15.9N 112.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     07/1800Z 16.4N 114.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     08/1800Z 18.0N 118.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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