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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 05 2000
 
EASTERLY SHEAR PERSISTS OVER OLIVIA...AS IMPLIED BY THE SHARP EAST
EDGE OF THE COLD CLOUD PATTERN THIS MORNING.  TOPS HAVE WARMED A
LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT DVORAK TECHNIQUES ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ALL SUPPORT RETAINING 55 KT AS THE
INITIAL MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.  WHILE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOT
EASY TO IDENTIFY ON IR IMAGERY...THE ANALYSTS ESTIMATES ARE CLOSE
TOGETHER AND INDICATE A LITTLE SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...275/5 KT.
 
THE 06Z AVN SHOWS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OLIVIA HOLDING THROUGH
THREE DAYS WITH LITTLE INFLUENCE ON TRACK FROM THE TROUGH OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA EXPECTED.  CONSEQUENTLY...THAT MODEL FORECASTS A WESTWARD
TRACK THOUGH THREE DAYS.  THE GFDL SHOWS THE TROUGH ERODING THE
WESTERN PART OF THE RIDGE A LITTLE.  THIS ALLOWS FOR A WNW HEADING.
MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS MODEST RANGE OF SOLUTIONS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AND IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WHILE THE CURRENT TREND POINTS TOWARD WEAKENING...SHIPS SHOWS A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 60 HOURS.  INDEED...TODAYS
EASTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN A FEW DAYS. 
SINCE THERE COULD BE AN INTERIM PERIOD OF LITTLE SHEAR...THIS
FORECAST WILL NOT SHOW THE WEAKENING BY DAY 3 INDICATED IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 16.1N 107.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 16.2N 108.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 16.3N 109.9W    55 KTS
36HR VT     07/0000Z 16.5N 111.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     07/1200Z 16.9N 113.1W    55 KTS
72HR VT     08/1200Z 18.5N 118.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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