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TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 04 2000
 
OLIVIA CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR.  CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES...USING THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION RULES...ARE
NOW 45/55/55 KNOTS FROM SAB/TAFB/AIR FORCE GLOBAL.  INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 55 KNOTS.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THIS
EASTERLY SHEAR TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE SHIPS
INTENSITY FORECAST TECHNIQUE CALCULATES THIS AS A MAJOR REASON FOR
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MIRROWS THIS REASONING.
 
INITIAL MOTION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND IS NOW...ABOUT 285/05. 
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL NORTH OF OLIVIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
BECOME STRONGER DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS A SLOW...GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
MOTION DURING THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS AND A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST.  THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND UKMET
OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS.  SEVERAL OF THE OTHER MODELS...
NOTABLY...THE AVN AND NOGAPS HAVE A MORE WESTERLY TRACK.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 16.1N 106.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 16.3N 107.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     06/0000Z 16.6N 108.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     06/1200Z 17.0N 109.9W    60 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 17.4N 111.4W    60 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 19.0N 114.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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