[NCEP Logo] HOME PRODUCTS FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 04 2000

AFTER THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BECAME NEARLY EXPOSED EARLIER
TODAY...NEW CONVECTION FORMED OVER THE CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT
OLIVIA IS MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES...
USING THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION RULES...ARE 55 KNOTS.  EASTERLY
SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM...AND THE AVN MODEL SUGGESTS
THAT THIS REGIME WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS VERY LITTLE SLIGHT STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. 

THE STORM HAS APPARENTLY BEEN MOVING MORE SLOWLY THAN PREVIOUSLY
ESTIMATED...ABOUT 285/04.  BASED ON SOME MORE VISUAL IMAGES...THE
CENTER IS RELOCATED A BIT TO THE EAST OF PREVIOUS LOCATIONS.  GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW THAT A WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL NORTH OF OLIVIA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MAINTAINS A SLOW...GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...MOTION
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS FOLLOW A
WEST TO NORTHWEST TRAJECTORY...BUT ARE GENERALLY FASTER THAN THE NHC
FORECAST.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 16.0N 106.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 16.1N 106.7W    55 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 16.3N 107.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 16.5N 108.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     06/1800Z 16.7N 109.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 17.0N 111.5W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN


Problems?